Equotion - For years people have talked about horse racing "systems" that are able to accurately predict winners.  From the people who tell you they are "plugged in" to the chatter of the yards to the people who tell you they can figure it out from current form, the number of people claiming to be able to deliver returns from racing have increased exponentially.  The internet has given them new life and a new way to recruit followers.  The only thing that links them all is that they are unable to demonstrate consistent, reliable, repeatable returns.

I read recently that 75% of race outcomes are "random and unpredictable".  Someone else was suggesting that betting on favourites provided the best chance of winning - with a 35% strike rate.  To some extent both of these viewpoints are correct.  It is fair to say that the majority of races end with a horse unloved by the betting public winning.  It is also fair to say that many races end with the favourite winning - but at such low odds that you don't earn back your stake on the favourites that lose.

At Equotion we have never suggested that you can be right every time.  What we do is use data science to increase your chances of picking the winner.  By using a unique and proprietary set of algorithms we have developed to analyse comparative form across each field of horses, ignoring traditional form and odds analysis, we are able to not only pick the most likely winning entry but also regularly select high value horses in the field.

The maths is simple - if you believe that you are looking at a two horse race (i.e. out of the field of 8 there are only 2 horses that could realistically win) and one of these is evens and the other 4/1, you back both horses.  If the evens horse wins you break even, if the 4/1 horse wins you win.  Unfortunately its never that simple in real life - but Equotion gets you pretty close to this level of understanding.

Bearing in mind that the results of each bet is binary (you either win or you don't) and that the return us usually a multiple of your stake, when you lose you lose a little and when you win you win a lot.  Logically the best way to win is to spread your pot across a large number of smaller bets, thereby maximising your potential return and minimising the inevitable losses.

Equotion works by greatly increasing your chance of picking a winner.  Furthermore, by not following the herd (thereby getting better prices on your selections) we have been able to constantly achieve somewhere close to our "target" scenario - selecting the winning horse on average 25% of the time at odds, on average, of greater than 6/1.  This is the level required to provide the kind of returns we aim to deliver to our users.

In order to deliver a profitable and repeatable system, Equotion selects one horse in every race every day.  It then looks at a number of factors (the level of probability difference between the top three horses, our accuracy at that racecourse, other tipsters etc) to "weight" your bets.  

It might appear at first that betting on between 24 and 60 horses per day is a weird thing to do - it is certainly counter intuitive to the systems operated by many gamblers - but it does two things.  Firstly it minimises the risk and secondly it allows you to hide in the noise.  By not betting significant amounts on a few horses, the bookies in house systems don't tend to see you as a threat.  Bet £1,000 on 3 horses per day and see how long you keep your account when one of them wins.  Bet £3,000 on 50 horses per day and you are more likely to make profit and the bookies are less likely to close your account.

Our stats are displayed simply and straightforwardly with an easy to follow betting guide.  

The Dashboard provides you with an at-a-glance view of the overall stats including overall returns updated in real time, a view of year on year accuracy and our racecourse accuracy levels.

The Subscription View provides you with a returns chart for the last 45 days and a view of progress today.  Clicking on the date icon allows you to view the selections and winners from any day in the past and the navigation buttons organise the data on screen to make it easier to place all of your bets, check out one race or see the results as they come in.

Finally, the user preferences view allows you to set your betting parameters and tailer the betting system to your budget and risk appetite. This produces a set of suggested bets that match your selected betting strategy.

Equotion is a great tool to empower your betting and greatly improve your returns.  The returns we show on site are based on the very most simplistic strategy - every horse, every race, regardless of odds or other factors.  By using the system as an input to your daily betting routine, you may be able to win far more than our indicated return.  Even if you want to continue to use other tools or approaches, or do your own thing with our data, betting with Equotion will be more profitable than traditional, unsupported "punting".

When we created Equotion we wanted to move horse betting away from the world of guesses, punts and stabs into the dark and into the realm of data led investing.  We believe that we have done that...have a look for yourself and see if you agree.