Executive Summary
Key Equotion Statistics:-
WIN 23.35% of our selections win the race (increases to 27% with the points optimiser)
PLACE In addition to the WIN pot, 56% of our selections are placed
TOP 3 Over 90% of races see a placed horse from our top three, many seeing 2 or all three horses win or place
RETURNS 2,682 points on a daily bet of 90 points since April
300% monthly return on capital employed
£100k per annum “net salary” from a fund of just £3,600
Equotion was developed by a group of big data experts, including an ex UK Data Scientist of the Year and a serial entrepreneur who also happened to be a racing enthusiast. The original intention was to build something that allowed us to position and explain how data analytics and predictive technology come together to open up opportunities for the way business engages with consumers.
Pioneering a number of cutting edge technologies we were finding it difficult to explain how the technology worked and to provide engaging examples of successful use of these predictive algorithms. It was then that we decided to combine one of the teams love of horse racing with the technology to bring what we were proposing to life.
Initially designed as a case study and educational tool about big data, the product has since taken on a life of its own as the accuracy of our predictions greatly exceeded all of our original expectations. The first data run left us stunned in terms of its success rates and the technology continues to amaze in terms of its accuracy over time.
Professional gamblers say that if you can make 10% each day profit on your stake and if 20% of the horses you pick come in as winners you are doing as well as you can expect to do. Getting to this stage means many years studying form and building networks to access the latest information from racings inner circle.
Equotion effectively short circuits all of this – we provide you form analytics without you ever needing to read The Racing Post or Timeform; we monitor the betting mechanisms for the effects of this “closed information” from within racings inner circle; finally we produce clear and simple predictions of race outcomes based upon horse, jockey, racecourse, going, weight and distance data points.
Collectively, our endeavours over the last 18 months have created what is simply the very best tipster platform on the net – out performing all other tipsters and betting systems that we are able to monitor by factors, not percentages.
What Is Equotion
Equotion is an analytics platform that looks at a field of horses running in a particular race, uses big data techniques to decide which order they should finish in, adjusts for the jockey, going, weight and distance impacts and then finally examines our previous results with both that horse and at the racecourse in question. Continually evolving, the algorithms get consistently more accurate as time goes by.
We weight our predictions by our “confidence rating”, a betting optimiser that balances a number of factors to advise on how many points we suggest you place on each horse.
Finally we provide a betting calculator, allowing you to specify a daily bet amount, preferences on risk, return and other key contraints which then creates a betting profile for that days racing – telling you exactly how much to bet on which horses.
3x your daily stake returned as profit each month (average results)
Over the last 6 months we have returned more than 19x your daily stake overall – an average in excess of 300% return every month. So at £2 per point you would be betting around £180 per day but would have returned £3,700 in profit in just six months…and you would still have your £180. To cover the “worst case” we recommend you only ever bet 50% of your fund – so to cover £180 a day we suggest you start with £360. Don’t forget that you can always build up your initial stake on system – so you could start with just £10 and accumulate your fund.
Quickpics
Every day we analyse our predictions and pick out the ten horses we feel are most likely to win – based on a variety of metrics. These form our “Quickpics” and are published to our free of charge subscription at noon every day and also shared on social media. Quickpics is a great introduction to the world of Equotion and provides proof of the power of our analytics. Following recent changes to the algorithm, the success rate is extremely high and returns in the last 30 days are staggeringly good. This tool in itself outperforms the very best most professional gamblers with years of experience expect to return month on month.
The Bigger Picture
Looking across the results from our complete race card selections over this years season shows significant gains being made consistently – and demonstrates how changes to our algorithms have created significant improvements in returns. Performance is consistent and currently returning a total year to date of 2,682 points (which on £20 per point represents £53,660 net profit on a daily betting fund averaging around £1,800).
On our suggested multiplier of a fund that is 2x your daily stake, this would represent an individual investing £3,600 into a betting fund with the Betfair Exchange that would return them £64k per annum of tax free income (this equates to an annual pre-tax salary of around £100,000 per annum). Feel free to compare that to you’re the returns on your ISA or pension fund.
Our accuracy and consistency of returns makes this more of an investment than a gamble. It is of course still gambling (and you should only ever bet what you can afford to lose) just like investing in the stock exchange. Equotion helps to mitigate any potential losses and whilst providing the opportunity for substantial and consistent gains. Unlike the stock exchange, everything you make is tax free.
Betting Strategies
So how do you use the data we provide to best effect. Simply put you follow the process. We provide a great deal of information behind our predictions, but to make the returns outlined above the key is to bet consistently, every day and make sure you follow the process to the letter. Using Quickpics is simple – 10 bets with a prescribed number of points per bet (between 1 and 5). Add up the number of points, divide this into your available fund for the day and you have the amount to bet on each horse. Bet on all the horses we propose as this will provide both bet and hedge cover to balance out the odds.
The Higher Level Subscriptions
High Noon and Turf Accountant both provide you with our chosen horse for every race in the UK and Ireland every day. Full House (as the name suggests) provides you access to the top selected horse in every race and is published to you at 10.30am. Turf accountant opens up the possibility of additional betting strategies and greater returns by providing you our top 3 horses.
All of our stats are based on betting only on the top selected horse. This is the standard betting strategy and provides the returns outlined. The secret to ensuring you deliver consistent returns is to wager consistent stakes. Using your personal preferences, the system will advise how much to bet on which horse using our optimiser technology and following this in a consistent way is the very best way of delivering predictable returns.
Turf Accountant does bring into play a number of other potential strategies. By providing you with our top 3 picks, this subscription opens up the world of pool betting. The Tote is the best known pool betting system on the market providing single race and multi-race pools. Turf accountant also allows you to examine the differences between our top three picks and place additional bets on the 2nd and 3rd choices – delivering you to take additional risk for greater reward where our top pick may be a favourite, or to hedge where our top pick looks like a more risky proposition.
Pro Investor is a future product that will include anti-post betting, earlier delivery of selections and a myriad of additional statistics allowing you to make more informed choices in your betting and the deployment of more complex betting strategies. This will be the weapon of choice for high net worth professional gamblers, syndicates and Betfair Traders.
How To Bet
Choosing a Betting Partner
The key question here is really who to bet with. The challenge with utilising tools that are consistently more accurate than an average punter is expected to be is that you quickly attract the attention of the bookies own profit management systems. This can mean the odds offered to you vary and often means that a string of substantial winnings will result in a letter explaining that your winning profile is “inconsistent with their business model” and your account being terminated.
To combat this we suggest three strategies.
- Use Betfair Exchange – this is a peer to peer betting platform where Betfair does not care if you win or lose as they make money either way. The limitation here is the liquidity in this market but for £10-£20 per point betting this should be your core betting platform
- Multiple Accounts – we recommend that in addition to your Betfair Exchange accounts you run multiple accounts with all of the online bookmakers. We also recommend using a Racing Post Membership Subscription as a way of checking available odds and making sure you are getting best value when placing bets
- Finally, The Tote has a role to play here – especially for their pool betting. Exacta, Jackpot, Trifector, Quadpot and Placepot betting is the most likely to win big for you and again, there is not threat of being blocked because you are more successful than average
When betting on the Exchange you can pre-set your Bet Amounts to multiples of your point stake and also set the view limit. We suggest you set the view limit at your middle stake point which means you only see odds where there is enough liquidity to cover your chosen stake. Should there be better odds available at lower amounts you effectively sweep these up as you place your bet.
On The Nose or Each Way?
All of our results are based on WIN ONLY betting on the top horse we select. Turf accountant allows you the option of placing bets on our second and third place horses and you have the option of betting Each Way with all of our subscriptions. Our success rate in terms of PLACED HORSES is significantly higher than our WIN success rate. The most profitable and least risk strategy is to bet on the nose on any horse that is less than 4/1 and then to cover all horses with odds at greater than 4/1 with an each way bet (if using the Exchange, best odds are achieved by betting WIN and PLACE separately.
Where the probability difference between our first and second picks for each race is less than 1.5 and the odds on the second place horse are better than the first it is also worth considering a secondary bet and if this should also be each WIN and PLACE.
Pool Betting & Betfair Trading
If you apply some “crowd logic” to racing then it follows that the horses most likely to win based upon form will, through the course of the betting through an afternoon, move towards lower odds. This is reflected in the fact that most horses we select shorten as we move towards race time and horses that start strongly that we do not select tend to drift.
This provides an opportunity to trade bets on the Betfair Exchange and exploit the inconsistencies in this very dysfunctional market. Every day provides significant opportunity to place, trade and lay bets that without ever risking a penny on the horse running, can make you significant returns. It also allows us to place scientifically derived bets onto the single and multi race pools offered by The Tote, and in terms of multipliers and accumulators. Although these are far riskier betting strategies, they can deliver very substantial returns for our Turf Accountant subscribers.
These advanced betting strategies, when funded by a percentage of the returns earned from the other, less risky strategies outlined, can significantly increase your returns without actually risking any of your core capital. Each of these strategies will be covered in a separate article in the coming months.
In Summary
The launch of Equotion represents a significant challenge to the status quo of the racing marketplace. We provide a way for individuals to deliver consistent and substantial returns from their betting activities whilst at the same time allowing our subscribers input, control and involvement to maintain interest and feed the excitement that only comes from this incredible sport. In the future we aim to build out the solution to cover golf, football and other key sporting events and there are plans in the pipeline to develop sidebar tools for online poker. Equotion is the start point of a significant on-line betting disruptor aiming to take a significant proportion of the recent upsurge in interest in the on-line betting marketplace.
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